Politics

Iowa Caucus Results

2012-01-04T08:31:00.000-08:00

Wow, what a finish. Romney finished in first place by a photo finish of only 8 votes.

It was really compelling to watch. As the votes kept coming in, neither Romney or Santorum could ever gain more than a 200 vote or so lead. Even Paul was right there for a long time and at one point the three were only separated by around 60 votes. Has this been the final state in a Presidential Election (i.e. Florida in 2000) it would have been unbelievable and must see television.

Sadly, Romney gets no bonus points for finishing in first, and Santorum no minus for finishing in 2nd, since the delegates are divided up by a proportion of the vote. I'll post the total projected delegates later in the post.

So what does this all mean for the future of the Republican Primary season.

Mitt Romney: Not much, he is the presumptive favorite so he should have won. He did, but only by the slimmest of margins. He'll still win New Hampshire, no question about that, but going further, he probably will struggle in South Carolina and then could in Florida as well.

Rick Santorum: Wow, I wish I could have said I saw this coming. No I did not. Nobody did. He could use this as a huge amount of free publicity, and will shoot forward through the rest of January off this finish. But, he is not well know nationally and will need to campaign in multiple states in the same time from now on. I don't know if he can do this consistently and may be just another flash in the pan candidate.

Ron Paul: Paul is Paul, he'll press on - win, lose, or draw - and will continue well into July. He probably won't win, but he could gain enough delegates to play spoiler at the convention.

Newt Gingrich: Oy, you almost feel bad for him. He was doing so well just a few weeks ago, now not so much. But, he is a strong souther candidate and with South Carolina and Florida coming up next, he can press on strong. Plus, he is well known and has a huge war chest. He'll be in through the Super Tuesday.

Rick Perry: Done, end of story. He'll quit after South Carolina (at the latest), then probably endorse either Santorum or Gingrich; whoever seems to be the strongest at the moment.

Michelle Bachman: Also finished. It actually looks like she is going to end her campaign in about 5 minutes. She was fun and a little goofy, but I guess at the end of the day she was a little too weird to be a viable candidate. It was fun Michelle, maybe in 2016.

Jon Huntsman: Didn't compete in Iowa, should do OK in New Hampshire, but won't go much further.

And there you have, 5 hours of news coverage all in one blog post. Come here to get the short summaries that you need. I saw a statistic over at Fox News that Rick Perry spent nearly $364 per vote that he received in Iowa, Romney spent $49, and Santorum spent only 79 cents. That is unbelievable. Santorum only went through around $23,000 in Iowa. I could run for President on that kind of money. Good for him. Drive around, meet the people. Talk to the people and most importantly convince them that you are the right guy for the job. He truly is a fiscal conservative.

If you have questions or comments, please post or email me at countzacky@yahoo.com. Don't forget to bookmark us by clicking Ctrl-D on your keyboard.

Iowa Caucus Tonight

2012-01-03T07:58:00.000-08:00

Here we go again. Four years ago it was Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and John McCain. Well, this time around there are six on the Republican side and just one on the Democrat side. This much we know right now; Barack Obama will be the Democrat's nominee for the 2012 Presidential Election.

(There is also a Democratic Caucus tonight, but it will go uncontested. Hopefully Obama will win 100% of the vote)

The rest is not so clear. Mitt Romney is the presumptive favorite, Rick Santorum had become popular of late, and Ron Paul has his usual intensive support. Then there are Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, both had their moments and have huge amounts of money. Even if they start off slow, they can hold on and stay in it for a couple of weeks. That leaves Michelle Bachman, who in all likelihood will end her campaign tonight. It has been a fun ride with her, but she doesn't have the votes, or the money, to justify a continuation of this campaign.

The most recent polling shows a close race between Santorum, Romney, and Paul. Here is the Real Clear Politics data, which has been reposted here. They have a great amount of information over on their website and encourage all of you to visit.

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	Romney	Paul	Santorum	Gingrich	Perry	Bachmann	Huntsman	Cain	Spread
RCP Average	12/21 - 1/1	--	22.8	21.5	16.3	13.7	11.5	6.8	2.3	--	Romney +1.3
Insider Advantage	1/1 - 1/1	729 LV	23	22	18	16	10	6	2	--	Romney +1
PPP (D)	12/31 - 1/1	1340 LV	19	20	18	14	10	8	4	--	Paul +1
Des Moines Register	12/27 - 12/30	602 LV	24	22	15	12	11	7	2	--	Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports	12/28 - 12/28	750 LV	23	22	16	13	13	5	3	--	Romney +1
NBC News/Marist	12/27 - 12/28	425 LV	23	21	15	13	14	6	2	--	Romney +2
CNN/Time	12/21 - 12/27	452 LV	25	22	16	14	11	9	1	--	Romney +3

But there are a few other ways to help predict the election outcomes besides for simply polling data. Nate Silver has designed a computer prediction model and he has Romney pulling away tonight with a 42% chance of winning.

Iowa Caucus Projections

CANDIDATE

PROJECTED VOTE RANGE

CHANCE OF WINNING

Mitt Romney

21.8%

Vote range →

42%

Ron Paul

21.0%

34%

Rick Santorum

19.3%

20%

Newt Gingrich

15.1%

Rick Perry

10.4%

Michele Bachmann

7.9%

Jon Huntsman

3.8%

Finally there are the Intrade Markets which give:

Romney a 50% chance,

Paul 30%,

Santorum 20%

Gingrich 0.5%

Perry 0.2%

Bachman 0.1%

Huntsman 0.1%

I was looking to post the data from oddsmakers in Vegas but I can't find them anymore. I will definitely post the lines for New Hampshire though.

Anyways, there is all the information I can think of. I'll just post my predictions for your entertainment. (And mine)

ZNN's Predicted final standings

Ron Paul 23%

Mitt Romney 20%

Rick Santorum 19%

Newt Gingrich 17%

Rick Perry 14%

Michelle Bachman 7%

Best of Luck to all the candidates.

If you have questions or comments, please post or email me at countzacky@yahoo.com. Don't forget to bookmark us by clicking Ctrl-D on your keyboard.

Sarah Palin Revelations

2011-09-03T08:01:00.000-07:00

This story is getting more and more epic by the day and if any of you want to know why Sarah Palin has not declared that she will run for President, this is probably why.

Apparently Governor Palin has had a number of affairs over the years, smoked pot, and snorted coacaine with and without her husband Todd. Not like that makes it any better.

Guess what though, no Democrat really cares if she did pot (so have pretty much everybody else) and I doubt and Democrat cares that she's been doing some of the harder stuff too. As long as she didn't do it while she was in public office, it shouldnt really be a big deal either.

On a similar note, plenty of male politicans have had affairs including last Republican nominee John McCain (although that was 30 years ago) and current candidate Newt Gingrich. Of course, neither of those two seduced an NBA player (good for you Glen Rice!!), but I don't think that should really matter.

But, the problem for Palin is that in-order to win the Republican nomination, her constituents will care about all these issues. She made religion and family values an issue during the Presidential campaign a couple years ago but now that is blowing up in her face now. I''m sorry, normally it shouldn't be an issue but when you don't act as you speak, it is going to blow up in your face.

So the only way that Palin actually runs for President now is if she somehow can deny all these claims and prove they are wrong... OR if she runs as in independant/Tea Party which is what I have been saying for a long time.

The only problem is that if she runs as an independant she has little to no chance of actually winning, but she scould garner maybe 10-15% of the vote. I think she really wants to see President Obama lose though and most of the 10% would probably be stolen from the Republican candidate.

But hey you never know...

If you have questions or comments, please post or email me at countzacky@yahoo.com. Don't forget to bookmark us by clicking Ctrl-D on your keyboard.

Newt Gingrich

2011-05-22T09:55:00.001-07:00

Newt Gingrich is running for president.